How I Predicted EU Election With Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

According to Wikipedia “The 2019 European Parliament election in Italy will be held on 26 May 2019″, and for this Special Occasion, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz was invited to talk about his book and how Online Analytics is becoming more and more influential to predict and determine elections and social phenomena.

Also, the Best 4 Analytics Students (1 for each typology of Master Degree) were invited to present an Analysis to try to predict, using Google Data, the results of EU Election (in Italy).

Luckily I’m becoming more and more famous for my Analytical Skills and my applied results in the Corporate Finance field, so the Machine Learning Professor charged to build up the Team called me to resolve the problem of finding an undiscovered variable that would predict the determinant factors of EU Elections.

So, immediately I decided to take up the challenge (just for fun), also because I was curious to discover how my abilities could be applied to solve different challenges from my field.

During my searches I used some complex libraries and modules to scrape data from Twitter to try to find patterns in the words used by the most important Italian political leaders, but what I discovered was that one of the most simple tools to use (Google Trends or Google Correlate) was also one of the most effective to discover useful information about the evolution of the collective intelligence online.

In fact, what I found was that the Level of Searches for the “SuperEnalotto” (National Italian Lottery, Blue Line in the Graph above on the left), was returning at levels similar to the ones of the Financial Crisis (2008-2009).

This factor could be a symptom of the “Level of National Desperation”, where people start to think emotionally and not rationally to find a simple solution to complex problems.
A situation that could lead to the spread of Populism among the population.

Some Journalists describe “Matteo Salvini” as a “Populist”, so I decided to analyze the spread of the “SuperEnalotto” linked to the spread of “Matteo Salvini” (red line into the above graph on the left).

Also, I did some other Technical Analysis using Big Data and I determined, together with my Team that the Populism will be prevalent and determinant in the Next Election, so they Will Win the EU Election in Italy.

Finally, I presented the Results during the Seth Presentation and he was really Surprised by our Discoveries!

Here is Available the Video (I present my self at the minute 49:00 and I talk about the Results at the minute 57:50).

At the End of the Speech, Seth asked me if I wanted to become a Data Scientist, and suggested me to meet new People via Events showing them what I’m able to do.

I was extremely proud that one of the Best US Data Scientist, graduated from Stanford and Harvard was saying me that! That was Amazing!

Before to leave, I asked him his number, with the hope that One Day I will meet another time this Incredible man in NY.

  • Lesson Learned: Just Talk and Be Optimistic – In The World Exist More Good People than Evil ones, You Will Be Surprised How Much Others Are Friendly

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