Why FTSE MIB Should Have Gone Up After Italian Coronavirus Quarantine

The recent Outbreak of Coronavirus in all the World gives us some insights on the Government’s abilities to manage the situation – and especially on their real interests.
Looking at the Data, Italy is one of the Top Performing Country in terms of test pro-capita executed: this is since, together Sud-Korea, is one of the best and most efficient countries in the world in terms of Healthcare System.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

In fact, Italy and Sud-Korea’s recent “Outbreak” doesn’t necessarily imply a relatively worse real situation with respect to other countries.
Instead, the data, in this case, have different meanings according to the category of the country we are looking to.

Assuming an equal distribution of population among time in terms of traveling (highly theoretical since in Europe there are other countries more internationalized than certain Italian areas, and consequently more exposed to Coronavirus spreading risks), is it possible to determine that the data don’t represent the real number of infected (asymptomatic or not), but simply the different strategies of the governments to handle the situation.

The most of the governments are terrorized to create a new “financial crisis”, and don’t want to stop the movements to not reduce the consumes and the “speed” of the money, consequently don’t communicate the real exponential trend of the virus diffusion to not disincentivize people and investors.

In fact, some of the most influential governments have no intention to stop the virus: also Merkel believes that the virus will affect between 60-70% of the German population.

The problem of Coronavirus seems to be in the people’s ability to interpreter the situation: most of them are convinced that the mortality rate is between 1-2% and that only older are affected.
This is only partially true: this condition holds if for serious or critical cases there are still Intensive Care Units available to treat them.

In fact, approximately 15-20% of official cases are classified as serious or critical, and if they are not treated (in the eventuality of a shortage of units) the mortality rate can easily increase, mostly determined by this untreated class of cases.

The official cases represent only a portion of the real cases since 45% of the infected seem to not show any symptoms: this means that the trend can easily follow an exponential trend and pass from 1,000 cases to 10,000 in just one week.

The next weeks will be crucial to determine the evolution of the Coronavirus, and right now people should behave like it has a mortality rate of 10-15%, since if the hospitals will be full, the initial ratio provided by WHO will likely increase.

If an Outbreak happens in all the world from the next month, one of the safest countries will be Italy, since was quarantined everybody, making the spread of the Coronavirus impossible: and everyone will desire to move here during the pandemic.

This is true especially for older people, that are at higher risk, which can benefit of very cheap living costs and one of the most efficient (and free of charge) healthcare systems in the world.

Of course, Italians will make everything will be possible to help them (for example, during the Chinese outbreak we sent thousands of masks to China, bringing to a shortage here to manage the current situation) but nobody can stop the worldwide financial crisis if other governments don’t take other measures.

If the political scene remains the same, is it likely that after that month of quarantine Italy will be one of the most stable countries in economical terms, and everyone can try to enter the country generating an increase of the national demand, benefitting the main financial index, less risky compared the ones of the other countries.

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